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forthedemocratswhocontrolcongress,theoutlookforthisyearsmidtermelectionsistheeviltwinoftheonetheyenjoyedineachofthepasttwoelectioncycles--ascqpoliticslatestraceratingrevisionsunderscore.In2006and2008,democratssurgedinresponsetothecollapseofpresidentgeorgew.Bushspopularity,andrepublicanshadtowalkawayfrommanyeffortstochallengeforwhatcouldhavebeenvulnerabledemocraticseats.Thisyear,thevoterbacklashisagainstpresidentbarackobamaandhisfellowdemocrats.Therearenow85democratic-controlledhousedistrictsratedbycqpoliticsinarangefromhighlytosomewhatcompetitive,andjust19republican-helddistrictsthatfitthesamedescription.Thelatestratingchangesareforthe17racesbrieflysummarizedbelow.Whiletherewassomedegreeofpartisanbalanceinthelatestsenateratingschanges,-democratslostsomegroundinthreeracesandrepublicansintwo-theresnothingbalancedaboutthisbatch.Therepublicanpartyschancesimprovedin12districtsheldbydemocraticincumbents:jimhimesofconnecticut;allenboydofflorida;debbiehalvorsonandbillfosterofillinois;johnyarmuthofkentucky;ikeskeltonofmissouri;carolshea-porterofnewhampshire;martinheinrichofnewmexico;timothyh.Bishopandmichaelarcuriofnewyork;earlpomeroyofnorthdakota;andchetedwardsoftexas.Theratingsalsosuggestthatthegophassolidifieditsholdonseatsdefendedbyfourofitsincumbents-dougyoungofalaska;erikpaulsenandmichelebachmannofminnesota;andleeterryofnebraska-aswellasthesouthcarolinaseatleftopenbyretiringrep.Henrye.Brownjr.Democraticseatsconnecticuts4thdistrict:leansdemocratic(waslikelydemocratic)himes,aformerinvestmentbanker,achievedaoft-frustrateddemocraticgoalin2008whenheunseatedveteranrepublicanrep.Christophershays.Thefreshmanincumbentbenefitsfromalong-runningdemocratictrendinhisdistrict,whichtakesinmainlyaffluentsuburbsofnewyorkcityaswellasthegrittierurbanenvironsofbridgeport:obamatook60percentthereasthe2008presidentialnominee.Butrepublicanstrategistsaretargetinghimeswhileawaitingtheresultoftheaug.10primary,inwhichstatesen.Dandebicellaappearsthefront-runner.Floridas2nddistrict:leansdemocratic(waslikelydemocratic)boyd,whoprojectsacenter-rightimage,hasyettofacethreateningrepublicanopposition.Butin2008,thesamevoterswhogave62percenttoboydgave54percenttorepublicanpresidentialnomineejonmccain.Andthegopistryingtoholdtheseven-termincumbentsfeettothefireforbeingoneoffivehousedemocratswholastyearvotedagainsttheoriginalversionofthehealthcareoverhaulbillbutthensupportedtherevisedmeasurethatwasenactedintolawthispastmarch.Hellfacethewinnerofacrowdedaug.24primaryinwhichstevesoutherland,presidentofafuneralhomecompany,appearsthefront-runner-assumingthatboydgetspastaprimarychallengebeingstagedbystatesen.Allawson.Illinois11thdistrict:leansdemocratic(waslikelydemocratic)halvorsonisaseasonedcampaignerwhoseguedtocongresswitha2008open-seatwinfrom12yearsinthestatesenate,thelastfourofthoseasthechambersmajorityleader.Buthereasyracetwoyearsagowasabettedbyaturnoutsurgeforobama,whowasservingasasenatorfromillinoiswhenheranforpresident,andarepublicancandidatesnafu.Adamkinzinger,heryouthfulrepublicanchallenger,hasabiothatincludesstintsiniraqandafghanistanasanairnationalguardflyer.Andwhilehehasntraisednearlyasmuchmoneyasthewell-preparedincumbent,hehasenoughtomakeagoofit.Illinois14thdistrict:tossup(wasleansdemocratic)fostersvictoriesinamarch2008specialelectionandthenovembergeneralelctiongaveareallifttohisparty,sincethedistrictwasdesignedtobesafelyrepublicanbyhispredecessor,formerspeakerj.Dennishastert.Thisyear,thegopclaimsithasamuchstrongerchallengerinstatesen.Randyhultgren,thoughhellhavetopickuphisfundraisingpaceaftertrailingfosterby$1.3millionto$108,000incashonhandasofmarch31.Kentuckys3rddistrict:likelydemocratic(wassafedemocratic)two-termdemocratyarmuthlikelywouldstayinthesafecolumnwerethisyearselectionenvironmentsimilartothatin2008..Butwhileyarmuthstillisaheavyfavorite,hehastowatchoutlesthislouisville-basedconstituency--themostdemocratic-leaningofkentuckyssixdistricts--reverttoitslongtimeswingvotingtendencies.Hewillfacethewinneroftuesdaysrepublicanprimary,inwhichpizzahutfranchiseejeffreetzisthebest-fundedrepublican.Missouris4thdistrict:leansdemocratic(waslikelydemocratic)democraticfixtureskelton,whoisseekingan18thterm,ischairmanofthearmedservicescommittee.Hisinfluencelongshieldedhimfromseriousrepublicancompetition,butseniorityisnotthearmorthatitnormallyis,andrepublicansarethreateningaseriousrunatunseatingskelton.Thegopfacesobstacles,though,inskeltonsbigfundraisingadvantageandacontestbetweenthefront-runningcandidatesfortheiraug.3primary-statesen.Billstoufferandformerstaterep.Vickihartzler-thathastakenacombativeturn.Newhampshires1stdistrict:tossup(wasleansdemocratic)shea-porterseasternnewhampshiredistrictwassweptupinthedemocratsssurgeoverthepastcoupleofelections,butithasasizablerepublicanbase.Republicanofficialsrecruitedmanchestermayorfrankgiunta,buthehasplentyofcompetitioninthesept.14primary.Newmexicos1stdistrict:leansdemocratic(waslikelydemocratic)manydemocratsseefreshmanheinrich,aformeralbuquerquecitycouncilpresident,ashavingseriousrising-starpotential.Althoughthedistrict,whichisnearlytwo-fifthshispanic,hasoftenfavoreddemocratsforpresident,heinrichendedhispartys40yearsofhouseracefrustrationwhenhewonhisopen-seatracein2008,andhedidsowithasolid56percent.Tokeepthedistrictfromswingingback,hellneedtooutrunjonbarela,ahispanicbusinessmanwhohaspotentialtoraiseenoughmoneytokeepthisahighlycompetitiverace.Newyorks1stdistrict:leansdemocratic(waslikelydemocratic)bishophasbeenfrankaboutavotingrecordhesaysistotheleftofmanyofhisconstituentsattheeasternendoflongisland,wherehefirstwontheseatin2002bydefeatingaone-termrepublicanincumbent.Thisyearspoliticalatmospherehasdrawninacrowdofhigher-profilegopcandidatesthatincludesbusinessmanrandyaltschuler;georgedemos,aformersecuritiesandexchangecommissionenforcementattorney;chriscox,abusinessconsultantwhoisagrandsonofthelatepresidentrichardm.Nixon;andformerciaofficergaryberntsen.Butgopchancescouldbehobbledifthecampaignforthesept.14primaryturnsintoanexpensivebrawl.Newyorks24thdistrict:tossup(wasleansdemocratic)thisupstatedistrict,wherearcuriwonanopen-seat2006racetosucceedveterangopmoderatesherwoodboehlert,iscloselydividedbetweentheparties.Arcuri,aformerlongtimecountydistrictattorney,facesarematchoftheracehewonoverrepublicanrichardhannabytheunexpectedlyleanmarginof4pointsin2008,amuchstrongerdemocraticyearthanthisoneisshapinguptobe.Arcurigotabigfundraisingjump,buthannaislikelytobefinanciallycompetitive.Northdakotasat-largedistrict:tossup(wasleansdemocratic)aneasy-goingmannerandanimageasafiscalconservativehavebeendemocratpomeroysbulwarksinahousedistrictthatencompassestherepublican-leaningstateofnorthdakota.Butthisyearlookslikehistoughroadsince2002,whenheheldonwith52percentofthevote.Thegop,afterputtinguplow-profilechallengersinhispastthreeelections,thisyearisrallyingbehindstaterep.Rickberg,whosurgedaheadofthenine-termincumbentinsomeearlypolls.Pomeroyalsowillhavetokeepbergfromlatchingontothecoattailsofpopulargov.Johnhoeven,thehighlypopularrepublicangovernorwhoisoverwhelminglyfavoredtowinthesenateseatthatdemocratbyronl.Dorganhasleftopentoretire.Texas17thdistrict:leansdemocratic(waslikelydemocratic)unlessyouvegotmoneytoburn,itsneverwisetobetagainst10-termdemocratedwards.Heshowedoffhispoliticalskillsin2004whenhewoneventhoughhewastargetedfordefeatbyacontroversialmid-decaderedistrictingplanpushedintolawbytexasrepublicans.Butedwards,whotoutshisworkformilitaryveteransaschairmanofthemilitaryconstruction-vaappropriationssubcommittee,nonethelessrepresentsaconservativestrongholdthatgave67percenttomccaininthe2008presidentialrace.Andedwards,whowasheldto53percentlasttimebyanunderfundedrepublicanopponent,appearstohaveastrongerchallengerthistimeinbillflores,anexecutiveintheoilandgasindustry.Republicanseatsalaskasat-largedistrict:saferepublican(waslikelyrepublican)young,whohasbeenalaskassolehousemembersince1973,hasnotcompletelyescapedthecloudofethicsallegationsthathavedoggedhimsince2008,anoffshootofacorruptionscandalthattarredmuchofthestatesrepublicanpoliticalestablishment.Butwhatyounghasavoidedsofarthisyearisanyloomingthreattohisre-election.Afterbarelyedgingseanparnell-thenthelieutenantgovernorandnowgovernor-forthe2008republicannomination,hefaceslow-profileoppositionfortheprimarythisaug.24.Whilestaterep.Harrycrawfordisacrediblecandidateforthedemocrats,hedoesnotnowappearlikelytopresentthekindofthreatyoungfacedinformerstatehouseminorityleaderethanberkowitz,wholostthe2008generalelectionby5pointsandisnowrunningforgovernor.Minnesotas3rddistrict:saferepublican(waslikelyrepublican)democratscontendedforyearsthattheydhaveanexcellentshotatwinningthissuburbantwincitiesdistrictupontheretirementoflong-popularmoderaterepublicanrep.Jimramstad.Butwhenramstaddecidedin2008tostepasideafternineterms,hispartywiselychosearamstadally,then-staterep.Paulsen,whohasaverysimilarpoliticalprofile.Afterdefeatingdemocraticupstartashwinmadia,aniraqwarveteranturnedopponent,by8points,paulsenappearstohavesmoothersailinginthismorepro-republicanyear.Jimmeffert,thechiefexecutiveoftheminnesotaoptometricassociationandaformerpresidentofthestatepta,wontheendorsementofminnesotasdemocratic-farmer-labor(dfl)party,buthefacesahugemoneygap.Minnesotas6thdistrict:likelyrepublican(wasleansrepublican)nomatterhowtoughthisyearturnsouttobe,democratsundoubtedlywillnotyieldontheirplanstoseriouslychallengebachmann,oneofthemostoutspokenandcontroversialconservativeactivistsonthenationalscene.Butherviews,ifabitmorecolorfullystatedthatmost,arefairlyrepresentativeofadistrict,stretchingfromtwincitiessuburbstoaroundst.Cloud,thatgave53percenttomccainin2008.Aftermissingby3pointsintheir2008bidtoousther,thedemocratsarelikelytofacetoughergoingthisyear.Andstatesen.Tarrylclark,thecandidateofthedflestablishment,facesastiffchallengeinthecampaignfortheaug.10primaryfrommaureenreed,amedicalpractitionerwhowasranforlieutenantgovernorin2006asnomineeofthestatesindependenceparty.Nebraskas2nddistrict:likelyrepublican(wasleansrepublican)omaha-areademocratshopedtocontinuethemomentumtheybuiltin2008,ayearinwhichobamanarrowlycarriedthisdistrictandbusinessmanjimeschheldterryto52percent,thelowpointinhissixhousevictories.Thechallengingpartywentalloutwithitssuccessfulrecruitmentofstatesen.Tomwhite,whohadbeenthinkingaboutrunningforgovernor,whoisrelativelywell-fundedforthisyearselection.Butwiththenationaldemocraticpartyfacesfightstoholdontodozensofseatstargetedbytherepublicans,itshardtoenvisionhowtheycouldgoalloutforthisone.Southcarolinas1stdistrict:saferepublican(waslikelyrepublican)democratshopedthatbrownsmediocre52percentshowingin2008wasaharbingerforaseriousbidtocapturethecharleston-areaseatthisyear.Butbrown,facingthelikelihoodofathreateningprimarychallenge,decidedtoforgoabidforasixthterm;lindaketner,thewealthy2008democraticnominee,decidednottorunagain;anddemocraticrecruitersfailedtoginupahigh-profilecandidate.Theseatalmostcertainlywillgotothewinnerofacrowdedjune8republicanprimaryfieldthatincludedbusinessmancarrolltumpycampbelliii,sonofalateformergovernor;charlestoncitycouncilmemberpaulthurmond,asonofthelatesen.Stromthurmond;andstaterep.Timscott.

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